The truce/cease-fire agreements in both Gaza and Lebanon are actually very fragile. The Lebanese truce has been extended to 18 Feb in order to give the Lebanese Army extra time to carry out the missions it was assigned. Whether it will do so is questionable. Hezbollah has NOT withdrawn north of the Litani and seems … More Truce 28 Jan
Meanwhile, in Lebanon: Hezbollah appears to have made a deal with the Lebanese Government. Hezbollah fighters remain south of the Litany river. The Lebanese Army was supposed to supervise their withdrawal, and handle (destroy) any weapons or fortifications left behind, Israeli forces would then withdraw from Lebanese territory. This is how I understood the (renewed) … More Truce 27 Jan
Everywhere in the world it seems there is talk about the death of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah. It will probably take several days for this to subside. When it does, there will/should be an opportunity to reach a cease-fire and hostage return agreement. If that happens, it’s important to remember that this entire confrontation was … More Gaza War 29 Sep
Deterrence is a concept that says when one side is afraid of the consequences of performing some action against another, they will regain from doing it. It is often a two way street. Today, Israel seems deterred from engaging in a ground war against Hezbollah. It may be that the expected cost is not viewed … More Gaza War 11 Aug
Israel finally responded to the murder of the children in Majdal Shams. The response came in the form of a double whammy aimed at the terrorist leadership. The delay in the execution gave time to let the world know that Israel was not interested in a wider war. But the actions did show off (or … More Gaza War 31 Jul
So far, today has been another day without the much expected severe Israeli strike in Lebanon. Many foreign airlines are suspending flights to Beirut. Some say the pause will be until 5 Aug. Maybe they know something I don’t. The failure to make a rapid response is being interpreted in some places as a sign … More Gaza War 30 Jul
The Israeli war cabinet met and discussed when and how to respond to the Hezbollah rocket attack on Majdal Shams that killed 12 children (3 girls, 9 boys, all between 9 and 15 years old). Whatever eventually will be done, the IDF will try to make it clear that the response is not aimed at … More Gaza War 29 Jul
This is an early post. I hope to have more this evening, when, hopefully, more details will be available. Yesterday afternoon Hezbollah launched a large number of rockets at Israel. One of the larger missiles landed on a soccer field in the Druze town of Majdal Shams. At the time, there was a game between … More Gaza War 28 Jul
Israel has sent a delegation to Qatar for talks between the mediators. The next step is to meet with Hamas representatives, In some quarters there is a little bit of optimism because there is a feeling that Hamas is beginning to recognize that they have, de facto, already lost the war. This has nothing to … More Gaza War 7 Jul
The attempts to avoid a war between Israel and Hezbollah continue to make news. The interesting thing is that all the statements call upon the other side to simply surrender, Take yesterday’s quotation from Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu. Israel won’t stop until all objectives are achieved. That means release of all hostages, removal of Hamas … More Gaza War 3 Jul
Wetherhorn 