Gaza War 7 Jul

Israel has sent a delegation to Qatar for talks between the mediators. The next step is to meet with Hamas representatives, In some quarters there is a little bit of optimism because there is a feeling that Hamas is beginning to recognize that they have, de facto, already lost the war. This has nothing to do with civilian casualties or the widespread destruction that can be seen almost everywhere in the Gaza strip. It has everything to do with the current situation on the ground where Hamas combatants are displaying no capability to conduct a classic guerilla war against the IDF. The military wing of Hamas has lost over 16,000 men and is no longer capable of training (or drafting) replacements. The IDF is very close to having de-militarized Gaza, no matter what media says. Sinwar may not care at all about the Palestinian civilians he ostensibly governs, but he is truly dependent upon having control of his army (and that army is collapsing).

The open question is what both sides are willing to do in order to reach a deal on releasing all the hostages (dead and alive), and achieve a cease-fire. The answer might come during the next week. A cease fire in Gaza will, according to Hezbollah, result in a parallel cease-fire from Lebanon. That, in itself, may not be enough to satisfy the Israeli demand for Hezbollah forces to redeploy north of the Litani River (as required by UN Resolution 1701). The possibility of a real ground war in Lebanon remains very real. The request of about a dozen countries to have their citizens leave Lebanon is still reasonable and realistic. Hezbollah refused to obey that UN order before, and they have not even mentioned it recently.


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