So far, today has been another day without the much expected severe Israeli strike in Lebanon. Many foreign airlines are suspending flights to Beirut. Some say the pause will be until 5 Aug. Maybe they know something I don’t.
The failure to make a rapid response is being interpreted in some places as a sign of weakness. It has encouraged Turkey to even make intervention threats (promptly followed in Europe by suggestions to expel Turkey from NATO). It looks to me like the US has held back approval for any Israeli action. President Biden delayed (cancelled?) sending Israel larger JDAM bombs saying he was afraid they would be used in Gaza against civilian structures. What the IDF really needs them for is to destroy the concrete underground fortifications that Hezbollah has built in the Lebanese hills and mountains opposite the Israeli border. It’s convenient for Biden to say he supports Israel’s right to self-defense while he holds on to some of the weapons that would be needed to accomplish that aim.
The Israeli government isn’t blameless, either. They have long held the view that the Lebanese government is responsible for everything that happens on the border. This ignores the fact that the official government there is not in de facto control; Hezbollah is.
American weakness is now infecting Israel. That doesn’t bode well for either of them.
Wetherhorn 