The truce/cease-fire agreements in both Gaza and Lebanon are actually very fragile. The Lebanese truce has been extended to 18 Feb in order to give the Lebanese Army extra time to carry out the missions it was assigned. Whether it will do so is questionable. Hezbollah has NOT withdrawn north of the Litani and seems to have no intention of doing so. On the other hand, Hezbollah threats of resuming fighting appear to be just posturing and bluff. Talking for the press to copy is one thing, actual fighting might be something entirely different.
Gaza is different. Hamas media manipulation is very much in evidence. The newest game is to tell Gazan civilian to return to their homes in the northern Gaza strip, Israel has NOT cleared this activity, but Hamas has. The objective appears to be to force the IDF to open fire at (or fire warning shots) at the civilians in order to cause panic or even casualties while Hamas cameramen film the entire show for distribution to international media. Hezbollah tried a similar scheme, but they don’t have the numbers, or level of destruction in the background, to make their films so compelling. Hamas, of course, combines their pictures with live (staged/scripted?) interviews. Almost a guarantee for getting their story on the small screen and leading to condemnations of Israel.
Since Hamas is still, de facto, in control of Gazan neighborhoods, they can do pretty much what they please. Israel never established a military government there because doing so would look like they were intending to stay longer (a “real” occupation, and international No-No). No other nation is willing to step in and take over that can of worms, and Israel is loathe to make any change of policy, so the power vacuum has been filled by Hamas while all the people and governments that said they had to be replaced just stand around watching and mouthing platitudes. Those that blame Israel for embarking on a war without a clear and achievable political objective are probably correct. But that doesn’t solve the problem.
By the way, the aid that goes in to Gaza is still being taken by Hamas. Also, nobody seems to be offering to fund the rebuilding of the demolished areas there.
Wetherhorn 