American president Donald Trump seems to want a peaceful final settlement of the entire Gaza/Palestine/Israel affair. He floated an idea of resettling Gaza Arabs in Egypt or Jordan (or both). The basic idea has some merit. The ‘Arab Refugee’ problem was created by the UN in 1949 when it established UNRWA (United Nations Relief and … More Truce 29 Jan
The truce/cease-fire agreements in both Gaza and Lebanon are actually very fragile. The Lebanese truce has been extended to 18 Feb in order to give the Lebanese Army extra time to carry out the missions it was assigned. Whether it will do so is questionable. Hezbollah has NOT withdrawn north of the Litani and seems … More Truce 28 Jan
Meanwhile, in Lebanon: Hezbollah appears to have made a deal with the Lebanese Government. Hezbollah fighters remain south of the Litany river. The Lebanese Army was supposed to supervise their withdrawal, and handle (destroy) any weapons or fortifications left behind, Israeli forces would then withdraw from Lebanese territory. This is how I understood the (renewed) … More Truce 27 Jan
I mentioned last time that Hamas has neither tanks nor an air force. They also do not recognize that there are any rules for war, humanitarian or other. In this they differ from (moderate?) mainstream Islam. But even Muhammed was known for violating truce agreements when it was advantageous for him. Hamas does not follow … More Truce 26 Jan
Any truce or cease-fire agreement can only be maintained if BOTH sides actually abide by the conditions agreed upon. This means that both sides must benefit. For Israel, the latest truce is designed to get Hams (and their partner the Islamic Jihad) to release hostages they took on 7 Oct 2023. For Hamas, it is … More Truce 23 Jan
I stopped writing Gaza war entries a while ago, mostly because my wife was not well. She is home from the hospital now and I am resuming updates. I want to start by reminding all of you who read this that the overall status of the most popular media that I follow has not changed, … More Truce 22 Jan
Gaza/Lebanon War 2 Oct The first siren came at 19:33, local time. My wife and I were on the sofa, watching the evening news. The IDF automated warning system came on and the TV shifted immediately to reporting the Iranian missile attack. I locked the front door and we settled down to await an “All … More
Everywhere in the world it seems there is talk about the death of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah. It will probably take several days for this to subside. When it does, there will/should be an opportunity to reach a cease-fire and hostage return agreement. If that happens, it’s important to remember that this entire confrontation was … More Gaza War 29 Sep
Deterrence is a concept that says when one side is afraid of the consequences of performing some action against another, they will regain from doing it. It is often a two way street. Today, Israel seems deterred from engaging in a ground war against Hezbollah. It may be that the expected cost is not viewed … More Gaza War 11 Aug
The media is full of speculation regarding when and where the Iranian reaction to the assassination of Ismail Haniya will be. What is not being asked (and it should be) is why? Haniya was a top official in an Iranian proxy terror organization. He was on a lot of Most Wanted lists. But the clerics … More Gaza War 2 Aug
Wetherhorn 