Wetherhorn

I was taken by surprise when us president Trump reported that there were going to be negotiations to end the current war. I’m certainly not opposed to the ides, but just how it’s going to play out does include a little bit of worry. I should also add that I was NOT surprised when Iran quickly denied they had initiated the idea. It seems to have come from some neighboring countries, specifically, Egypt and Pakistan. I’m not particularly concerned about who started what. What bothers me is what the terms will be.

I’ve mentioned before that I have never seen a war won by air power alone. The US does not want to put troops into Iran, All the talk about marines en route to the region and alerting the 82^nd airborne are just that, Talk.  The various pundits are talking about seizing Kharg Island. Well, in my book, that is pure propaganda pressure. In order to reach Kharg Island by sea American forces would have to go via Hormuz.  Resupply for any initial air drop would also need resupply by sea. This is not going to happen. It’s what was once called a “red herring”, designed to divert attention.

I do not have any reliable data on what the two sides might talk about. I have heard the  Iranians want reparations, and a guarantee that once hostilities cease, they will not be resumed. I don’t see the US accepting either of those positions. The US wants Iran to give up the entire nuclear program and all the enriched Uranium (and the equipment, if any survived, to continue the process). Supervision might be via the IAEA. If that idea is going to get support, it will have to be extensively modified to prevent Iran from restarting a new program and simply lying about it, just like they did before. Halting support for proxy terrorist groups is also just a lip service commitment. Iran will create scenarios well they can claim plausible denial for responsibility while still directing such activities. Range limitations on ballistic missiles also doesn’t look to me like an enforceable demand. On the positive side, the abyss of destruction of Iranian power supplies (and whatever they might do in reply) has been delayed for at least 5 days, and maybe more. The current destruction of the increasingly smaller number of military and industrial targets will continue while the world waits to see who will go to Islamabad, and what they will be willing to propose.