Wetherhorn

Continuation,

The Israeli Home Front Command is beginning to relax some of the rules, possibly an indicator that Iran is less of a threat. This morning prayers were upstairs instead of the more protected lower level, and no limitations on number of participants. Schools are being reopened, not that it means much, because the children would be off for spring (Pesach) vacation anyway. But child care for younger children is also open and very important. Mothers can go back to work. We have had 2 missile alerts this morning, but both were intercepted, I heard the boom from the events. People have to stay in shelter for several more minutes to allow for the shrapnel from the missiles time to fall to earth.

Air traffic is still very limited. Most airlines have not resumed flights to our region. One friend from the scrabble club had gone to visit family in Australia. Her return went in several short hops via India, and Egypt (Sinai) from where she returned through Eilat. Another came from England via Greece and Cyprus. Israeli airlines are mostly doing short flights to Europe at Arab airlines are taking Israelis from India and Sri Lanka to Jordan, where they can return home by land transport.

The media is focusing on the oil crisis and the Hormuz Straits. US joint Marine/Navy amphibious groups are en route to the area, leading to speculation that rump will use them to either seize Iran’s major oil port on Kharg Island or take some of the coastal area around Hormuz. Air power, alone, has never won a war, and Trump has repeatedly said he will not put American ‘boots on the ground’. Iran has exploited those statements by making propaganda films that are supposed to show confidant Iranian soldiers saying they will destroy the Americans in direct fighting. I remember Saddam Hussain’s Iraqi forces saying the same thing a few years ago. Didn’t work for him then, and isn’t likely to work for Iran now.

The oil crisis, however, is an entirely different case. It is causing major disruptions in the entire world economy. Ship Insurance rates are still going up, even faster than the price of crude oil on the world market. Most European countries seem to prefer paying extra for appeasement to sending actual naval forces into the fight. Even their lukewarm commitment to participate in patrols was couched in language that limited participation to begin only after there is a cease-fire. Many people don’t know that there is a pipeline from the Saudi oil fields across Arabia to the Red Sea. It is fully utilized now, and there has even been talk of cutting a new canal across the UAE to allow ships to avoid the Hormuz blockage. It’s just talk, like the Eilat to Ashkelon pipeline was before the Suez Canal was blocked. Such a solution would take years to complete, and be very expensive.

The Democrats in congress are so blinded by their opposition to Trump that they are actively bent on destroying the country. The funding bill for Homeland Security has still not passed the senate. That means that TSA, USCG, and sir controllers are working without pay. ICE, the declared Democrat target, has already been funded under a previous bill. Hard to understand what they think they will achieve. One of the clauses they want added to another bill involving presenting Identification in order to vote is even harder to figure out. Aliens don’t have the right to vote, anyway. Why do they want an amendment to prevent ICE operatives from being near polling stations? I hope voters in November remember these actions, especially travelers.

Iran has placed a lot of trust in the idea that the oil crisis will cause other countries to pressure the US to “make a deal”. The media has even floated an idea for some other nation to take temporary custody o all that enriched Uranium that Iran has stashed away. When the idea was mentioned to Iran they turned it down, but some media pundits have said that Iran even initiated the idea (Twice!).

CNN mad much of the fact that they made a deal to get reporters inside Iran. CNN made sure to add on that the deal guaranteed them final say on what would be broadcast. There was no mention of the idea that Iran would control what the reporters would be allowed to see, or who they would be allowed to interview, I heard about how that kind of deal worked back in the days when I had a press card, It looks like little has changed.

By the way, I work using open source intelligence. You should be able to verify anything I write here, and if you can’t, please let me know and I may be able to show you where to look..

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