The UN Security Council finally passed a resolution to end the Gaza War. The vote was 14 in favor with Russia abstaining. The resolution was introduced by the US. They claimed it was a copy of an Israeli proposal. That’s only partially true. The US made some modifications that can result in problems. The deal takes place in stages. The first stage is clear, and involves a cease-fire (only temporary, but it remains in force while details of the next stage are negotiated between the belligerents). Not all hostages are released in the first stage. Knowing the Hamas record for (non)negotiation in the past. There is probably room to worry about whether a second stage will ever be concluded. There won’t be any military pressure on Hamas because of the cease-fire. The US says if Hamas signs on, they will ensure Israeli compliance.
As it stands, the proposal leaves Hamas in de facto control. No plan is included for how aid will be distributed, or by whom. If not by Hamas, how will they be protected? Reconstruction is put off until a later stage. Will “humanitarian” concerns be used to circumvent this? Overall, it looks to me as if Hamas is getting what it wants in return for release of some (women, ill and elderly) hostages in stage one and no reason to expect there will ever be a stage two. Maybe I’m too cynical. What I see most clearly is an election campaign ploy by US President Biden.
Meanwhile, the shooting continues on Israel’s northern border. Hezbollah is not part of the proposed UN resolution. Will they stop firing rockets and sending drones? There are reports that IDF units pulled out of Gaza are already being sent north. France warned the Lebanese government that Israel is planning an attack within a week or so. The whole situation is still complex, and perilous.
Israel had 4 more soldiers killed yesterday. A small number compared to Hamas terrorists that have been eliminated. But Israel tries to avoid unnecessary deaths on both sides, while Hamas want more dead bodies on both sides. That is a basic difference between the two adversaries.
I won’t be writing a blog tomorrow because of the Jewish Shevuot Holiday.
Wetherhorn 