Americans have an issue with understanding the Middle East and Islam. It’s natural to expect everyone to behave rationally and to think the same way you do. But that is not the case in the Islamic world. I would have expected some people in government to recognize this by now. President Trump can repeat that the Iranians want to make deal till the cows come home, but that doesn’t make it true. They are just playing for time. Trump will be gone in 2 more years. Will the Iranian leaders still be around?
It’s easy to understand American reluctance to get involved in ground operations in Iran. It means a lot of US casualties. Pummeling them from the air is so much safer. But air power, alone, has still never won a war. It’s necessary, but not sufficient. Sending in ground forces, especially with elections looming, isn’t the smartest thing to do when you’re in an unpopular war.
But Iran is not the only place where American naiveté is on display. In Gaza the first part of the multi-national force to keep the peace will be arriving soon. But the prerequisite for their employment, disarming Hamas, has not, and will not, take place. Hamas has recruited a lot of new ‘police’, and armed them. They haven’t engaged in any serious provocation, and are not yet successful in smuggling, or building, rockets. Once the multi-national troops are in place that situation will probably change. Their presence is a limit on Israel,. not on Hamas. UN troops on the Israel-Lebanon border never prevented Hizbullah from attacking Israel. The new arrangement where Israel withdraws from parts of Lebanon to make way for a re-enforced Lebanese National Army to come in and disarm Hizbullah is not going to be any different. Hizbullah forces are still stronger than the Lebanese Army, and have said out loud that they are not going to disarm. Paper agreements between Lebanon, Israel, and the US aren’t going to change that. The reason Hizbullah is not building up strength is because Iran is unable to smuggle weapons to them. How long will that last?
Both Israel and America are due for elections soon. Nothing is going to change before those events. Whether there will be an improvement afterwards is highly dependent upon whether the US has learned anything about the Middle East. Don’t hold your breath.
Wetherhorn 