This is a followup to my last post. Since then there has been a lot of media reported activity. (and also some that has not been reported)
The scheduled meeting to continue negotiations in Islamabad appears to have been called off. The Iranians are not coming. They say it is because the US captured one of their ships (Yes, a real event!). Looks to me like they are using that as an excuse. The enrichment ban was only going to last 25-30 years. They want to keep their uranium and enrich it, too. Hormuz wasn’t even discussed,and the Iranians are maintaining that they still own it (contrary to maritime law!). As I write this, there isn’t any open shooting yet (except for Lebanon and Gaza, where the proxy groups are not disarming.) The US was reportedly ready to even withdraw from bases in the Gulf region.(but NOT pay reparations). Frozen Iranian assets were to be released and sanctions lifted. Bottom line:A real Iranian victory. Hezbullah remains stronger than the Lebanese National Army and still has strong representation in the government there (and the French are providing a UN sponsored military force to preserve that status quo). In Gaza,elections are about to happen, and Hamas is running for office, (despite earlier claims they would be banned) and they continue carry weapons in the areas where there are no Israeli troops on the ground. There is still a large American presence in the area and a standing threat to resume military action. I just wonder if that threat will turn out to be as empty as the Iranian claim to have laid mines in Hormuz.The field where America really loses the war could be the ballot boxes during the US mid-term elections.
Wetherhorn 