If I had been asked at any time during the past few weeks if I thought there was a chance of a hostage/cease-fire deal I would have probably said “Definitely Not”/ Even now, with lots of rumors flying about how close a deal is, I’m still only very cautiously optimistic.. I have a hard time accepting the idea that any terrorist Palestinian group could be ready to commit political suicide. Hamas is still trying to make some kind of successful operation to kill Israeli soldiers (or even kidnap them?) and they have not been able to do so. Their ‘normal’ scenario of turning any negotiations into a game of playing for time or getting something they can use to show off that they actually “won” the war.
Negotiations today are still not moving very fast because Hamas is demanding the release of some individuals that Israel is not ready to let go. There is also a legalese loophole that says the first step is for Hamas to release all hostages “that under its control”. The other minor criminal gang, The Islamic Jihad, might be used as a straw man that Hamas could use to claim they don’t actually hold all the hostages. Iran is still trying to smuggle more weapons into Gaza. Some were intercepted yesterday. After the publicity stunt Gaza Freedom Flotilla failed (they actually did not have even one package that could be claimed as aid for Gaza) a third ‘flotilla’ of about 9 little boats tried to get to Gaza today. The Israeli Navy stopped them, too. By the way, the people of the first flotilla have all been deported from Israel, but the boats are still in Ashdod. The owners will have go through a lengthy (and expensive) legal process to reclaim them.
The IDF is not conducting offensive operations against Hamas, but they are still searching for weapons and tunnels (and destroying them) in the areas under IDF control. A “real” cease-fire will only take effect AFTER the release of the hostages. Add to this that the propaganda wars are still going on, but the big media networks are not giving it as much coverage as they used to. They still try to grab headlines, like an attempt to charge members of the Italian government with “aiding genocide” because the Italians are still engaged in buying and selling arms with Israel.
Despite all the above, the only real show is the one in Sharm El Sheikh. We can only wait and pray for it to reach a positive result.
Wetherhorn 