IAF air attacks killed 2 senior Hamas leaders. Ra’ad Saad, the Hamas chief of operations (#4 in the hierarchy of the military wing at the time) was a major loss for Hamas. He had been responsible for trying to rebuild the shattered military organization. The second death was the Hamas in Lebanon senior official Ayman Ratma. Killing individuals may not change the situation, but it surely makes things more difficult. Experience and talent are not in great supply inside Hamas.
This morning I heard a reliable Israeli reporter on Arab affairs say that the latest round of propaganda releases from Hezbollah are probably attempts to deter any IDF ground operation. That concurs with my own assessment. But any arrangement that allows the current status to continue is not likely to be satisfactory to Israel.
There are people who are taking the threats seriously. Canada and Kuwait have both advised their nationals to leave Lebanon. Other countries are rumored to have done the same. One country that has definitely not joined the panic is Iran. Iran has joined the ranks of those trying to promote deterrence by openly saying that if the US is involved helping the IDF against Hezbollah, Iran will actively join in the defense of Lebanon, That sounds to me like they are banking on American reluctance to see a wider war,
IAF attacks in Gaza have caused the Hamas propaganda machine to return to claims of food shortages and “imminent starvation”. There are currently more than 1300 trucks on the Gaza side of the Kerem Shalom crossing that are held up because the (non-Hamas) distribution authorities are afraid if they proceed, Hamas will steal most of the cargo. Arab Media has reported Gazan casualties in widely different numbers. The figures for dead “civilians” range from less than 30 to over 300. Since the IDF did take the usual precautions and warned when and where the strikes would take place, the real numbers are probably around 30 dead (all terrorists!) which is what the IDF is claiming.
Wetherhorn 