The American envoi made his trip to Beirut, and came away empty handed. Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah timed his propaganda releases to ensure the US rep would be embarrassed. On one side, Nasrallah himself made a threat that his forces could invade northern Israel. On the other side he had his TV channel broadcast spy photos taken from drones showing detailed images of Haifa, with the veiled threat that if they can take pictures of the area, they can also deliver explosives there.
To be clear, the reason that there is no ground war on the Israel Lebanon border is due to a d facto mutual deterrence. Hezbollah has an extensive arsenal of rockets and drones. They have the potential to overwhelm Israeli air defenses with sheer numbers. Israeli air attacks in Lebanon, as in Gaza, cannot hit underground targets. Nasrallah thinks he knows what Netanyahu will do (mostly, nothing) and uses the media front to try to bolster his deterrent capability. Most pundits think that neither side wants a ground war (with the uncertainty about the war spreading further if it starts).
There is little doubt that the IDF could cause major destruction and heavy casualties in Lebanon. The current Lebanese economy is already in shambles. There is widespread inflation, no tourism, and little hope of improvement. That’s the kind of situation where local politicians like to focus attention on an enemy outside their own borders. There may be hidden reasons for the US Mediterranean Fleet Carrier Battle Group recently sailing east.
Wetherhorn 