The Iranian attack on Israel yesterday is likely to be studied by professional military men all over the world. Here are a few points to consider:
The entire attack was actually for show. Iran informed some countries of exactly when the event would occur. They intentionally did not fire on population centers in order not to force a massive Israeli response (which Iran’s air defenses would probably have been unable to handle). Part of the propaganda broadcast in Iran included videos claiming to show damage inflicted. One was found by BBC to be from a Chilean forest fire from about 2 years ago.
It was a massive attack, nearly 3 times as large as the Russian air attack on Ukraine at the start of the Russian invasion. It was also a massive failure. It is inconceivable to me that the Iranians did not expect some successes. Instead, only 5 ballistic missiles actually struck inside Israel (as far as I know); One was aimed at a radar installation and was a total miss, 4 were aimed at IDF air base at Nevatim. One missed and exploded near a road near Hebron. One hit an unused hangar. Another hit a separate hangar that was empty, and the last exploded near a runway (the base has more than one) and did not interfere with operations.
After the attack the body of one missile was found floating in the Dead Sea. Drones that did not detonate were found in a farmer’s field and entangled in electric or telephone wires.
About half the ballistic missiles failed on or shortly after launch. One that exploded on launch was reported to have killed the launch crew.
Allied attacks in Yemen destroyed at least one ballistic missile and 7 drones on their launch pads.
All drones and cruise missiles were destroyed before they reached Israel.
Bottom line: A lot of countries will likely be looking to purchase Israeli made air defense systems. Customers of Iranian drones may start looking elsewhere for more reliable weaponry.
Wetherhorn 