Hamas is winning the media war. Even if they aren’t, they think they are. Even Nasrallah in Lebanon went on record to say that the anti-government demonstrations in Israel are proof that there will soon be a cease-fire without any Israeli objectives having been achieved. To help this perception, the IDF has pulled troops out of southern Gaza (Khan Yunis). This may also be behind rumors that a new hostage release deal will be made within a few days. Other items pointing to this include: Ramadan is coming to an end (IDF offensive operations were limited during that month), Hamas terrorists killed 4 Israeli soldiers in an ambush in Khan Yunis and escaped via undamaged parts of the tunnel network, Iran informed the US (via the Swiss embassy) that they would be attacking some Israeli target in the near future, the US is placing restrictions on Israel with regard to the use of US supplied weaponry, an American base in Syria was again attacked by an Iranian proxy, there has been no decrease in Hezbollah rocket fire into Israel (and no withdrawal north of the Litani as required by UNSC resolution 1701). In short, plenty of events that appear pro Hamas and few that appear pro-Israel.
Some people interpret the IDF repositioning as opening an area for Palestinian civilians to go to when an attack is launched on Rafah. But IDF Chief Halevi said that Hamas was no longer a cohesive organization (meaning it no longer was a threat? Or that the IDF wasn’t going to go into Rafah to destroy it?). There are still thousands of Israelis, and Lebanese, that have left their homes near the border. Neither side is taking steps to return these refugees to their homes. Does that mean another escalation is coming on the Israel Lebanese front?
Wetherhorn 