Hames rejected new approaches for a possible hostage deal. It ought not have been a surprise. The most important thing for Hamas is to survive. The only way they see that happening is to have a complete cease-fire (before they are eliminated). Any negotiations that don’t lead to their preferred results are meaningless. They are not going to give away their most important bargaining asset, the hostages, if it won’t lead to an outcome they want.
The UNSC resolution that was just passed got an unexpected boost. Israel came out in support of it, but with a condition. The hostages have to be released first. Israeli troops who are continuing the slow process of exploring underground Gaza found another ‘holding area’ where some hostages appear to have been held for a while. No details were released yet, but it is likely that these hostages are no longer alive. In addition to the material that indicated the previous occupation by hostages, nearby tunnels yielded a normal haul of munitions, supplies, and other intelligence items. The slow grind of exploring the tunnels has resulted in IDF analysts revising their estimates of how many tunnels there are. The new estimates are about twice the size of what was believed before.
The Hamas rejection of negotiations has been interpreted by some as indicating that Hamas leaders still think the old script of an imposed cease-fire (and consequent Hamas victory) may still come to pass. This notion is supported by the various Christmas messages that appeared in the media. Lots of them called for an end to the Gaza War, a fewer number called for an end to the conflict in Ukraine. I didn’t see any that asked for a halt to the fighting in Sudan. The Hamas leaders are probably very happy with the current situation. There’s plenty of media coverage of the Gaza Palestinians (and the media isn’t blaming Hamas for that). The script calls for more and more international pressure on Israel to agree to a cease-fire. IDF activities are not as intense as they were (also due to external pressure). And because of the easing of Israeli operations, they may even think they can hold out until that mystical cease-fire becomes a reality. Do they need a Joseph to interpret their dreams?
Wetherhorn 