Our Mini-War has been continuing for almost a week since I last posted about it. So, like the Lord High whatever in the Mikado I think it’s time for a review of where we are (and how we got here).
Wars are not fought for fun. They are a serious activity in which both sides have an idea of what they want when it stops (and BOTH sides really do want it to stop, but the conditions they want to see when that happens are quite different). This current spasm of violence (or whatever else you’d like to call it) did NOT just happen. It was a well planned action set in motion by Hamas sponsored provocations under the slogan of “Protecting Al-Aqsa”. There never was a threat to Al-Aqsa, but the fact that the slogan is false doesn’t stop Hamas from using it. Having achieved some physical violence in confrontations with the Israeli Police, Hamas in Gaza, took their next planned step; They fired rockets into Israel, including sending some toward Jerusalem. They accompanied this with an ultimatum telling Israel to take actions that they dictated. Those steps are enough to surmise what their objectives were. They know the fighting is going to stop at some time, and when it does, they need it to appear that they are the party that set the terms for the cessation of hostilities. They know that Israel has no desire to occupy Gaza. All Israel wants is a quiet border there. They obviously were pleased to hear the initial orders to the IDF to simply restore a situation of deterrence. It’s also certain that they don’t intend to do anything in that direction without getting some major gains for their trouble. Those gains have to be something that they can hold up to show that they set the terms.
Hamas has an arsenal of thousands of rockets. They have already launched more than ever before, and have enough to keep on going for a long time. Longer than what they expect to be the level of tolerance for other parties to endure having the “war” continue. It is important to remember that Hamas initiated the exchange. It is NOT a game of tit for tat. Hamas is not a democratic government and could care less about the people they govern. They have described Gaza as the largest concentration camp in the world. That’s probably true. But the guards aren’t Israeli, they’re Hamas terrorists. The majority of the almost 2 million residents in Gaza are hostages. Hamas leaders are happy to see some of them die if their deaths can be blamed on Israel.
On the Israeli side, a ground offensive has several points against it. There would probably be more casualties. Israel would be a de facto occupying power responsible for the civilian population of any part of the strip they capture. No one in Israel wants to add such a large number of residents as potential citizens, nor do they want to try to govern a probably hostile population of that size. In this approach Israel is following the example of the Arab nations that are on her borders. Egypt, Syria, and Lebanon all deny so-called “Palestinian” refugees citizenship and representation. Jordan did give them those rights, and then took them away when Jordan repudiated her annexation of the West Bank. But without occupying the ground it is quite difficult to prevent rockets from being launched.
Any attempt by some other international body, like the UN, to try to govern in Gaza would face the same problems that confront Israel. UN organizations have sent armed forces to ‘supervise’ truces between warring parties on both the Northern and Southern borders of Israel. They can only be as effective as the host countries (Lebanon and Egypt) allow them to be. There is certainly no willingness on the part of any UN member state to send their soldiers to enforce a government in Gaza. There is no real democratic tradition in Palestine (or any other Arab country, for that matter). There is, however, a history of armed militant groups taking power and enforcing their rule by weaponry. Hamas is not the only group to have done this.
There have been many demonstrations calling to “Free Palestine”. What the Palestinian people need is a possibility of having a government of their own that is committed to building a Palestinian State along side Israel, and not in place of Israel. Right now I see no such political movement in the Arab world. The best thing that most of the world can do is to oppose and frustrate the aims of groups like Hamas that do not truly have the interests of their own people at heart.
Wetherhorn 