We’re very preoccupied with Corona virus. It seems the rest of the world is, too. Nobody hears much from India or Iran or Turkey. They’re busy with the virus. But there are other Arab countries around us that have different things on their minds.
The United Arab Emirates are on their way to making a normalization agreement with Israel. There will probably be other Arab states that follow, But none will make any overt moves until Muhammed Ben Zayed, the leader of the UAE, has his moment of glory. I suspect the summit will be staged in Washington, DC. There, all three of the main actors, Israel, UAE and USA can share the headlines. Once that is over I expect other Arab countries to join, Bahrein, Kuwait, and Qatar are all likely candidates. Sudan and Saudi Arabia might follow.
One Arab government that won’t be involved is the Palestinian Authority. They are increasingly frustrated as their Arab League coalition is crumbling around them. They have no real answer, so far, except more of the same rhetoric which brought them to this stage. It didn’t work in the past. It is not likely to work now, either. The choice facing them is simple. Get rid of the current leadership which has already outstayed its welcome, and is highly corrupt. The problem is, who will replace them. Hamas has a lot of followers in the West Bank, but their ideology is just the same as that of the failed PA Fatah faction. Just now, I don’t see any new leadership with different ideas ready to try to win along overdue Palestinian election. This includes Mohammed Dahlan, who has been in exile for several years. I don’t think he has enough clout to come back and take control. Maybe by the time the rest of the Arab world begins to “normalize” relations with Israel that will change.
In Lebanon, the fallout from the Beirut explosion is not dissipating. The new government is widely recognized as a powerless straw man for Hizbullah, if they do hold new elections, something the US and France are both strongly supporting, Nasrallah and Hizbullah could face a serious defeat.
It seems we are living out that old Chinese Curse: “May you live in interesting times”.
Wetherhorn 