This coming Tuesday is election day in Israel. Its a close contest between the two leading parties. Both are hovering, according to the pollsters, at around 30 seats each. Since they need a majority of the 120 seat Knesset that means a coalition with one or more smaller parties. Most of the smaller parties are expected to win 4-6 seats each. That means there will be some hard bargaining needed to forge a coalition. A lot of election promises can be expected to be blocked by this process. The most important of them is that any promises to break the stranglehold of the religious parties won’t occur. Drafting religious (read – ultra-orthodox) young men into the army will not get any further than it has up to now. There will be equality of religious practice throughout the country, but not for all branches of Judaism. There will be no marriage for same-sex couples, nor wil those couples be allowed to adopt children,
The right and far right want more building in Jewish held land beyond the old 1967-7cease-fire lines. They also favor full extension of Israeli Law (Annexation) for all Jewish inhabited locales over those lines. This looks to me like another non-starter,. But it won’t be because those places are in violation of international law (read 4thbGeneva Convention) because that aspect of the law can be applied just as well to the Arab/ Palestinian inhabitants and their homes and villages. Earlier conflicts had resulted in the expulsion/exile/annihilation of Jews in some of those places. The law doesn’t say it’s only applicable to borders as of a particular date, nor does make a clear distinction between aggressive and defensive wars. It does talk about aggression, but does not address the case of an aggressor losing territory. Of course, there is little value in promises form either the right or the left for making Peace with the Palestinians. Despite frequent claims to the contrary the Palestinians remain unwilling to discuss any such agreement with Israel and cling to a dream of destroying Israel completely., There is hope that a few calmer voices in the Arab world might gain enough support to make this change in the future, but at present, it is not a realistic option and Israeli politicians making promises in that direction should know that whatever they promise will not happen right now.
I’ll write more about this after the election results are in, or possibly after the coalition agreements are set.
Wetherhorn 