The Iranian foreign minister came out of the Geneva meeting earlier this week making sounds like there was a real agreement almost ready to sign. It sure did not look that way to me. Iran has kept discussion of missiles and terrorism sponsorship off think the agenda. The Iranian offer includes a lot of “concessions” that don’t match visible on the ground. Why should the US (or anyone else, for that matter) trust them? They obviously continued progress toward making a nuclear weapon while pretending to allow inspections , and are currently working feverishly to harden the site at Natanz (which was previously not targeted) to protect it from a potential US attack. Do they think their claims of devastation in response to any strike are believable?
What is going to delay any potential attack right now is the weather. Those fierce rain storms that caused so much flooding in Western Europe are about to arrive in the Eastern Mediterranean. President Trump is saying that Iran has a week to ten days to come to its senses and make a realistic (from his point of view) deal. That means including missiles and terrorism. It also means that the US would be waiting for clearer skies anyway, and not just for the arrival of another carrier strike group.
One item I haven’t seen anyone reporting on is the logistics behind any strike. The numbers of bombs and missiles on ships is limited. Weapons used would need to be replaced. Are there supply ships en route carrying possible resupply items?
In the meantime, Poland has told all Polish citizens in Iran to get out now, while it is still possible. The US already evacuated civilian dependents and unnecessary personnel. American troops from smaller bases in Iraq are packing up and moving to other locations in that country, mostly in Kurdish controlled regions.
Another thing that is of interest is that neither Russia nor China have known agreements to defend Iran, The Chinese are sending lots of military equipment. The Russians conducted very public joint naval exercises with Iran, and seem to have sent the ships that were involved elsewhere very quickly. The rapidity may just be my interpretation, but I don’t know of any Russian warships dallying in Iranian ports. Inside Iran, popular dissent has been brutally repressed and the government is still trying to keep any word about conditions from leaking to places outside their country, The massive rain storms may not relieve draught conditions in Iran and the rampant inflation with the accompanying decline in the value of local currency does not seem headed for a change.
I’d be happy to hear from anyone who has other interpretations, especially if backed up by some real evidence. I’m not troubled by the idea of another war breaking out, but that’s just because I have no way of influencing the events.
Wetherhorn 