The media rhetoric wars are still going strong. I think that a lot of the threats we see are based on the idea that the people making them are fairly confident that they won’t have to actually follow through on them. Of course, this kind of brinkmanship includes a big risk. The target of the threat may not behave as expected. One of the more extreme threats made yesterday came from Iran. In the midst of their election runoff (with actual participation running at a record low of about 10%) The Ayatollah warned America that if the US came to aid Israel in Lebanon it would lead to a “war of annihilation”. He must be very confident that US President Biden will do whatever he can to avoid a wider war. Focusing on an external enemy is a favorite tactic of regimes with popularity problems at home. Iranian proxies also appear to be actively trying to bring down the regime in Jordan (giving them another front from which to attack Israel). Hezbollah, meanwhile, is firing even more rockets into Israel.
One pundit even suggested that this would be the ideal time for Iran to declare it was now a member of the Nuclear Weapons Club. If they wait until the US elections, and Trump wins, the opportunity will have been lost.
On the other side of the fence, more and more countries are pulling their citizens out of Lebanon. It seems they have little confidence that even extreme threats are likely to prevent an IDF ground operation against Hezbollah. Where that might lead is unclear. Abject failure of the earlier Iranian missile and drone attack on Israel cannot be very encouraging for the Iranians. British aircraft (based in Cyprus) joined American forces then in helping the IDF crush the attackers.
Wetherhorn 