The talks about a hostage release deal are continuing (although I’m not sure why). It still looks to me like there really isn’t much chance of an agreement. Israel wants kidnap victims released. The only price Hamas wants in return is a complete permanent cease-fire (or anything else that leaves them in charge in Gaza). The mediators (Qatar, Egypt, US) have not been able to sell any interim ideas, however reasonable they may seem, to both sides, Neither Hamas nor Israel is likely to assent to something that looks like a defeat.
Meanwhile, Hamas is still operating, via tunnels, in lots of places. Yesterday they managed to launch another rocket. Of course, the rocket did not cause any casualties or do any damage. What was important was the image that Hamas was still able to launch a rocket. In previous spasm of violence events this is like firing the last rocket just minutes (or seconds) before the cease-fire takes effect. The reality isn’t important. It’s the impression that counts (or the ability to spin the facts to make the desired impression),
American pre-election polls show how important a foreign policy win is for President Biden.
Israel Prime Minister Netanyahu now had another domestic issue that may threaten his position.
A senior ultra-orthodox mainstream rabbi has openly stated his opposition to having yeshiva students eligible for military service. Their legal exemption ended, and the Israeli court ruled that they must also serve. If Netanyahu doesn’t defy the court, the Ashkenazi ultra-orthodox party might leave his narrow coalition and cause new elections (which Netanyahu, according to the polls, would certainly lose).
We do live in interesting times.
Wetherhorn 