The media is full of speculation about possible hostage release deals today. Part of it is fueled by some official statements from parties who seem to have a special interest in putting an end to the fighting. It’s an admirable desire, but the rumors, so far, don’t appear to have much substance to back them up.
On the Hamas side, the requirement is for a complete cease-fire, a withdrawal of the IDF from Gaza, and international guarantees that Israel will not attack again, Notice that in return Hamas is willing to release hostages over a several month period and makes no promise not to attack Israel (not that such a promise would be honored). In addition, Hamas wants a guarantee that Israel will not kill Yahya Sinwar.
Israel is reported to have offered a 3 month truce, and release of Palestinian prisoners in return for the release of the remaining hostages.
The Israeli government is under a lot of pressure to make some kind of deal that includes return of all the hostages and a permanent cease-fire. The pressure comes from groups inside Israel as well as from the US and UN.
The positions reported, so far, are so far apart as to be quite unrealistic.
My personal opinion is that any deal that leaves Hamas with any kind of influence in Gaza should be avoided. Hamas has never been a believable negotiating partner, and is not one now. The best, perhaps the only, pressure Israel can bring to bear is continued military operations. In addition, any deal with Hamas that doesn’t involve some kind of recognition (and punishment) for them having taken hostages (in contravention to international law) in the first place amounts to granting Hamas a major victory. That is something that ought not be allowed to happen. In the past, Hamas has always ignored any commitments they may have made by claiming that the mythical “occupation” allows them to ignore any aspect of international law (or prior agreements) that they so choose.
The territory still held by Hamas is actually quite small. This places some serious limits on the IDF. The Air Force has to cut back on its operations because of the possibility that hostages might be located in the targeted area. Ground forces have similar restrictions. The IDF has cut off the Khan Yunis city from the south now, so potential escape routes are limited, The possibility of tunnels leading out of Khan Yunis is still very real.
Wetherhorn 