Wetherhorn

A lot has happened over Shabbat. The IDF has still not moved in on the ground, but there were other developments.

The top story for me was the release of 2 American hostages by Hamas. Hamas made no public statement about what was being sought in return, but it looks like they are playing for time and want an extended cease-fire because they are looking at a stated Israeli objective of removing them from power. Make no mistake; Hamas doesn’t release captives because of good intentions. They are still holding some 210 hostages, including 8 family members related to the 2 that were released.

There was an Arab (and others) summit in Cairo, ostensibly to discuss the humanitarian crisis in Gaza. It failed to get the desired response. True; a lot of representatives condemned Israel, but no one promised anything beyond the limited (food, water. medicines) aid that was already waiting on the Egyptian side of the Rafah crossing. When Israel actually sends forces into Gaza Egypt and Jordan might take the diplomatic step of recalling their ambassadors. That would be due to internal pressures. But nobody is planning on doing anything militarily to support Hamas.

Even Hizbullah, on the northern border, has been careful not to go too far. As I mentioned in a previous post, when Hizbullah fired rockets into Israel they were careful to have Hamas claim responsibility. Hizbullah soldiers continue to fire anti tank guided missiles into Israel, and have caused some IDF casualties. But in return, IDF attacks wiped out about 8 of the squads that were firing the missiles.

Iran is willing to activate proxies against Israel, but not to get directly involved. There was a big banner in the Iranian capitol proclaiming “Tel Aviv is where the campaign is taking place, not Tehran”.

Iran did try to get another proxy group involved. The Houthi s in Yemen launched 3 long range missiles and about 15 drones (all supplied by Iran) toward the north. The American destroyer USS Carney, stationed at the end of the Red Sea (and apparently with some Saudi aid) intercepted and destroyed them. That looks to me like the US is willing to back up with actions their warning to other nations not to get involved. Also, there are American bases inside Iraq that have been physically attacked. There have been no reported casualties and the US, as far as I know, has kept the incidents out of their press briefings.

When the IDF actually moves into Gaza things may change, but right now, it appears it won’t be anything really big.