In the USA there has been a lot of talk about how newly inaugurated President Biden will deal with his campaign promise to rejoin a diplomatic deal to keep Iran from having nuclear weapons. I decided to throw out a few thoughts about this and see what some of you who read my blog might think.
My focus is on Yemen. There is a terrible civil war taking place there that doesn’t usually get much press attention. The political situation there is actually quite complex, but I am going to simplify it by just talking about two major players; the former Government of Yemen (GoY), and the Houthi Rebels. The Houthis are supported by Iran. The GoY are aided by Saudi Arabia (and, indirectly, by the USA). The press reports I’ve been seeing talk about American objectives as including an Iranian halt to Uranium enrichment, a parallel halt to long range missile development, and cessation of Iranian involvement in the affairs of neighboring states (i.e. Syria, Lebanon (via Hizbullah), and Gaza (via Hamas). Oh yes, and also Yemen via the Houthi rebels. It’s no secret that Iran exports arms to all of those places. The Saudis actually sent an expeditionary army to support the GoY forces. That army is, of course, equipped with American weapons. Middle Eastern oil is still a vital commodity for most of the world. That’s the justification for keeping a large American naval presence in both the Arabian/Persian gulf and at the southern entrance to the Red Sea. Foiling Somalia piracy is a secondary objective there.
Iran is interested in embarrassing the US in any way it can. Their officially proclaimed objective is to get American forces to leave the area. Totally! One way to do that is to use violence. But an all out war is one they would be certain to lose. So they try various military options short of direct attack. They have laid mines.That resulted in the US Navy sinking their mine laying vessels and keeping an international mine-sweeping squadron positioned in the Gulf. They have used small high speed craft to harass shipping, but with careful attention to avoiding US owned ships. One of the latest was to seize a Korean ship. They also have mini-submarines that can attack ships traveling near Iranian bases. Kuwaiti and Saudi flagged tankers have been targets for what was almost certainly Iranian torpedoes. Finally, they have tried proxy attacks. In 2016 Houthi forces launched anti-ship missiles at US Navy ships twice, and earlier they actually hit an unarmed US ship that had been leased to the UAE with such a missile.
My personal belief is that, using the Yemen War as a cover, the Iranians are likely to engage in another proxy attack to test the response of the Biden administration. They won’t do it if they can get what they want by taking. They will definitely be willing to make promises that they don’t intend to keep. But if those efforts fail, be ready for more real violent attacks on ships transiting both the Bab el Mandeb and the Straits of Hormuz.
Wetherhorn 